IA2030 Scorecard

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Global

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SP 6: Supply & Sustainability
6.1

Healthy global markets for vaccines

Level of health of the vaccine market—Global
Vaccine2019/202020212022
Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG)1
Unhealthy
Unhealthy
Healthy
Human papillomavirus (HPV)
Unhealthy
Concerning
Unhealthy
Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV)2
Concerning
Concerning
Healthy
Pneumococcal polysaccharide2
Concerning
Concerning
Not applicable
Measles
Concerning
Concerning
Not applicable
Measles-rubella
Concerning
Concerning
Concerning
Measles-mumps-rubella (MMR)2
Concerning
Concerning
Concerning
Penta (whole-cell pertussis-containing)
Healthy
Healthy
Healthy
Hexa (acellular pertussis-containing)2
Unhealthy
Unhealthy
Unhealthy
Tetanus-diphtheria2
Healthy
Healthy
Healthy
Inactivated polio vaccine, stand-alone
Healthy
Healthy
Concerning
Rotavirus
Healthy
Healthy
Concerning
Cholera
Not applicable
Not applicable
Concerning
Yellow fever
Not applicable
Not applicable
Concerning

1) No market study update in 2020 - same as 2019.

2) No market study update - same as 2020.

Definition: Level of health of the global market.
  • Healthy: The market has a diverse and stable supplier base
  • Concerning: The market has a significant concentration of vaccine supply with a potential for market disruption
  • Unhealthy: The market does not have a stable and diverse supply
Method of estimation:

Step 1) For each antigen, conduct a review and sum the number of criteria for a healthy market ‘met’ in the most recent market assessment.

The overall health of a vaccine market includes an assessment of the following criteria:

  1. Total number of suppliers
  2. Relative concentration among suppliers (market share of the two largest producers)
  3. Ability to distribute globally
  4. State of the development pipeline - the number of vaccines in phase III clinical development

Step 2) Determine the level of health based on the conditions outlined below.


2019/2020 & 2021:
  • Healthy: First three criteria are positive and the last is not negative.
  • Concerning: One of the first three criteria is negative or all of the first three criteria are neutral and the fourth is negative.
  • Unhealthy: Two or more of the first three criteria are negative.


2022:
  • Healthy: Most scores are positive across the four criteria.
  • Concerning: Most scores are neutral across the four criteria.
  • Unhealthy: Most scores are negative across the four criteria.
  • Only the first three criteria are used for assessment if information on the fourth (number of vaccines in phase III clinical development) is missing.

Limitations: Flexibility given to accommodate specific needs of different market contexts may come with additional subjectivity that may pose challenges in reaching assessment alignment.
Data source: UNICEF Supply Division, Market Information for Access (MI4A) vaccine purchase database (contains information on vaccine prices, volumnes, manufacturers, procurement modalities, contract length, and more as reported through