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IA2030 Scorecard — 

Global View

Impact Goal 1: Prevent Disease
1.3

Reduce VPD outbreaks

What Does this Indicator Measure?

This indicator measures the number of large or disruptive outbreaks of six vaccine-preventable diseases: cholera, Ebola, measles, meningococcus, wild poliovirus (WPV) and circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV), and yellow fever.

How Will Progress be Measured?

By 2030, fewer large or disruptive outbreaks are expected to occur compared to the baseline. Given the dynamic nature of outbreaks, and the expected fluctuation of outbreaks across the decade, the trendline will be monitored. The target is a declining trend in the global annual number of large or disruptive outbreaks for each VPD. Progress will be evaluated annually.

Number of large or disruptive VPD outbreaks—Global

Summary Table

Pathogen201820192020
Total6910968
Cholera111
Ebola111
Measles507626
Meningococcus230
Poliovirus (WPV)222
Poliovirus (cVDPV)92233
Yellow Fever445
Definition: Outbreak threshold criteria for large or disruptive VPD outbreaks are:

Cholera: In highly endemic countries, a threshold increase in the annual number of reported cases compared to the average annual incidence over the past 5 years. Or for countries that are endemic-epidemic, over 12,000 cases reported annually.

Ebola: 100 cases.

Measles: Incidence equal to or greater than 20 reported measles cases per million population over a period of 12 months.

Meningococcus: A cumulative attack rate >100 suspected meningitis cases per 100,000 population within one year in a given population based on a definition used for the African meningitis belt. Each region will set its own definitions for epidemics/outbreaks and targets for reduction according to local epidemiology.

Polio - wild poliovirus (WPV): > 1 WPV from any source (e.g., cases, environmental surveillance, contacts, healthy children's samples) in a country per year AND confirmation of local circulation in accordance with the standard operating procedures for outbreak response.

Polio - circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV): > 1 cVDPV from any source (e.g., cases, environmental surveillance, contacts, healthy children's samples) in a country per year AND evidence of local circulation in accordance with the standard operating procedures for outbreak response.

Yellow fever: 5 cases in endemic areas. Or >1 cases in an area previously without yellow fever.

Measurement approach: Large or disruptive VPD outbreaks are identified using data collected by the International Coordinating Group for Vaccine Provision, WHO Headquarters and WHO Regional Offices with technical assistance from VPD control, elimination, and eradication initiatives. For multi-country outbreaks, each country’s portion of the outbreak was assessed separately.
Calculation: The directionally of the trend will be measured by calculating the line of best fit for the data points (number of annual outbreaks) over time (from baseline to 2030) assessing its slope.