IA2030 Scorecard



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Impact Goal 1: Prevent Disease

Saves Lives

Number of future deaths averted through immunization—Global

If target is reached, 50 million total future deaths will be averted during 2021-2030 and an annual average of 5 million deaths will be averted each year.

Off track toward 2030 target

Summary Table

PathogenBaseline (2019)20212022
Hepatitis B1,318,1391,174,9631,183,823
HPVNot measured57,23780,613
Streptococcus pneumoniae140,117138,080157,694
TB (BCG)119,941111,045117,444
Yellow Fever125,334123,277123,764
Definition: Number of future deaths averted, based on estimated vaccine coverage from WUENIC.The current IA2030 coverage scenario captures lives saved from 14 pathogens: Hepatitis B, Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), Human papillomavirus (HPV), Japanese encephalitis (JE), measles, Meningococcus A, Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, rubella, yellow fever, diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, and tuberculosis (BCG).
Method of estimation:

Step 1) Estimated deaths and deaths averted, collected from multiple data sources, are converted into a single measure of country-, age-, and vaccine-specific relative risk of death conditional upon vaccine coverage levels.

  • Estimated deaths averted are the product of updated WUENIC vaccine coverage and impact ration (deaths averted per fully vaccinated person)
  • Translate coverage and population estimates in fully vaccinated persons (FVPs)
  • Converts FVPs to estimated deaths averted
  • Compare estimated deaths averted to estimated target deaths averted

Step 2) Relative-risk model is used to predict deaths averted in all locations and diseases.

Step 3) Additional calibration converts the estimates into deaths averted by year of vaccination, which allows for capturing the lifetime effect of vaccination aggregated for the year the vaccines are delivered.


A counterfactual of “no vaccination”, as opposed to partial vaccination, is used to calculate the estimates, and vaccine coverage estimates capture only vaccines delivered through the routine immunization system (the impact on vaccine coverage from supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) is not captured).

Limitations on population estimates used to calculate model estimates can be found on the WPP website, and include:

  • Variability in reliability and timeliness of demographic data (e.g., if a recent census is not available for a country, estimates are projected using historical data)

Data source: WHO/UNICEF Estimates of National Immunization Coverage (WUENIC), estimates of deaths averted from Vaccine Impact Modeling Consortium (VIMC), Global Burden of Disease Study, and other model inputs from published literature.