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IA2030 Scorecard



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Impact Goal 1: Prevent Disease

Saves Lives

What Does this Indicator Measure?

Modeled estimates project the number of lives that will be saved from 2021-2030 by achieving IA2030's aspirational coverage targets for WHO-recommended vaccines. Estimates are included for global and regional deaths prevented through the administration of vaccines against 14 diseases. A mid-decade update will add deaths averted by vaccines against a dozen more diseases, including COVID-19, to the projections.

How Will Progress be Measured?

The IA2030 model was used to generate a target number of deaths averted for each year. These targets are based on the aspirational IA2030 coverage scenario. The same model will be used to generate estimates that reflect annual progress based on the WHO/UNICEF estimates of national immunization coverage, which are updated every year.

Number of future deaths averted through immunization—Global

If target is reached, 50 million total future deaths will be averted during 2021-2030 and an average of 5 million deaths will be averted each year.

Off track toward 2030 target

Summary Table

Streptococcus pneumoniae136,525137,962135,627
TB (BCG)119,447114,800110,788
Yellow fever125,832125,342123,749
Hepatitis B1,306,8691,260,4171,166,131
Definition: Total number of future deaths averted by vaccination delivered from 2021-2030, based on the IA2030 coverage scenario.
Measurement approach:

A modeling approach is used to project the number of deaths averted at the global and regional levels by achieving aspirational coverage targets for IA2030. These targets are also aligned with the Impact Goal indicator 3.1—vaccination coverage across the life course—and IG 2.1, Number of zero dose children. The initial scope focuses on 14 pathogens, which will be expanded to update the estimates at the midpoint of IA2030.

2021-2030: Hepatitis B, Hib, HPV, JE, measles, MenA, Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, rubella, yellow fever, diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, TB (BCG)

By 2025: Polio, typhoid, influenza, cholera, multivalent meningitis, COVID-19, varicella, dengue, mumps, rabies, hepatitis A, hepatitis E, and other new vaccines.

Calculation: Observed and averted death, collected from multiple data sources are converted into a single measure of country-, age-, and vaccine-specific relative risk of death conditional upon coverage levels. The relative-risk model is used to predict deaths averted in all locations and diseases. Additional calibration step converts the estimates into deaths averted by year of vaccination, which allows for capturing the lifetime effect of vaccination aggregated for the year the vaccines are delivered.
Data source: WHO/UNICEF Immunization Coverage estimates, estimates of deaths averted from Vaccine Impact Modeling Consortium (VIMC), Global Burden of Disease Study, and other model inputs from published literature.