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Modeled estimates project the number of lives that will be saved from 2021-2030 by achieving IA2030's aspirational coverage targets for WHO-recommended vaccines. Estimates are included for global and regional deaths prevented through the administration of vaccines against 14 diseases. A mid-decade update will add deaths averted by vaccines against a dozen more diseases, including COVID-19, to the projections.
The IA2030 model was used to generate a target number of deaths averted for each year. These targets are based on the aspirational IA2030 coverage scenario. The same model will be used to generate estimates that reflect annual progress based on the WHO/UNICEF estimates of national immunization coverage, which are updated every year.
Number of future deaths averted through immunization—Global
If target is reached, 50 million total future deaths will be averted during 2021-2030 and an average of 5 million deaths will be averted each year.
A modeling approach is used to project the number of deaths averted at the global and regional levels by achieving aspirational coverage targets for IA2030. These targets are also aligned with the Impact Goal indicator 3.1—vaccination coverage across the life course—and IG 2.1, Number of zero dose children. The initial scope focuses on 14 pathogens, which will be expanded to update the estimates at the midpoint of IA2030.
2021-2030: Hepatitis B, Hib, HPV, JE, measles, MenA, Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, rubella, yellow fever, diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, TB (BCG)
By 2025: Polio, typhoid, influenza, cholera, multivalent meningitis, COVID-19, varicella, dengue, mumps, rabies, hepatitis A, hepatitis E, and other new vaccines.